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EIA:Henry Hub期货价值跌至汗青低点

发布时间:2020-08-03 08:54   来源:    作者:

原标题:EIA:Henry Hub期货价值跌至汗青低点

    中国石化新闻网讯 EIA日前暗示,Henry Hub天然气日均现货价值已跌至1998年12月以来的最低程度。

    美国能源信息打点局引用天然气情报数据指出,2020年6月16日,Henry Hub价值到达1.38美元/百万英热单元(MMBtu),这是自1998年12月以来,不思量通货膨胀和名义美元的Henry Hub期货跌至最低价值。

    在2020年开始相对较低的价值之后,本年夏天到今朝为止,Henry Hub的价值一连走低,原因是天然气储存程度较高,以及天然气需求的下降,出格是液化天然气(LNG)原料气出口和家产部分的需求。

    在经验了一个暖冬之后,4月30日,供暖季竣事时的天然气库存比5年平均程度跨越21%(3950亿立方英尺),比去年季末的程度跨越50%(7720亿立方英尺)。自那今后,由于需求下降,天然气的净注入量增加,这些差别继承很大。

    停止6月12日,天然气储蓄程度比5年平均程度跨越17%(419亿立方英尺),比去年跨越33%(722亿立方英尺)。

    较高的储存量表白天然气产量相对付消费者需求较高。6月份的短期能源展望(STEO)预测,到2020年10月底,天然气储量将到达创记载的4.1万亿立方英尺。

    近几周,输往液化天然气出口终端的原料气数量较低,也对天然气价值组成下行压力。本年6月到今朝为止,输往液化天然气终端的天然气平均日产量为40亿立方英尺(Bcf/d),比去年同期淘汰了14亿立方英尺,比3月底估量的创记载的日产量淘汰了50多亿立方英尺。

    另外,为减缓2019年新冠病毒(COVID-19)伸张而实施的政策导致贸易和制造业勾当淘汰,也导致家产消费者对天然气的需求削弱。

    据标普全球普氏能源咨询公司(S&P Global Platts)预计,2020年6月的家产天然气平均消费量比2019年6月下降了约21亿立方英尺/天,降幅达9.6%。

    本年夏天到今朝为止,天然气价值较低,导致发电厂对天然气的耗损增加,因为与煤炭等其他燃料对比,天然气在发电方面更具竞争力。与去年对比,6月份日均耗电量增长了约6%。尽量本年6月到今朝为止电力需求增长根基持平,但仍呈现了上述增长。

    天然气价值处于汗青低位的另一个影响是天然气产量下降。美国能源信息打点局指出,按照IHS Markit的数据,6月份的干产总量约为900亿立方英尺/天,比2020年3月淘汰了近37亿立方英尺/天。

    最近需求的下降高出了产量的下降,给Henry Hub的价值带来了下行压力。然而,由于天然气价值变革和出产程度调解之间存在时滞,估量天然气产量将进一步下降。

    6月STEO预测干产量将继承稳步下降,到2021年5月到达842亿立方英尺/天的低点。将来几个月,天然气产量的下降将给Henry Hub价值带来上行压力。6月份的STEO估量天然气价值将在2020年底走高,并预测Henry Hub在12月份的平均价值将到达2.95美元/百万英热。

    赵斌 编译自 世界天然气

    原文如下:

    EIA: Henry Hub dips to record lows

    The Henry Hub average daily natural gas spot price has hit its lowest level since December 1998.

    Citing Natural Gas Intelligence data, U.S. Energy Information Administration notes that the Henry Hub reached $1.38 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on June 16, 2020, the lowest daily Henry Hub price without adjusting for inflation and in nominal dollars since December 1998.

    After starting 2020 relatively low, the price at Henry Hub so far this summer has continued to trend low because of high natural gas storage levels and declines in natural gas demand, specifically in exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) feedgas and in the industrial sector.

    Following a mild winter, natural gas inventories ended the heating season on April 30 at 21 per cent (395 billion cubic feet (Bcf)) higher than the five-year average and 50 per cent (772 Bcf) higher than last year’s end-of-season levels. Since then, those differences have continued to remain wide as a result of falling demand, which has increased net natural gas injections into storage.

    As of June 12, natural gas storage levels were 17 per cent (419 Bcf) higher than the five-year average and 33 per cent (722 Bcf) higher than last year.

    High storage levels indicate high natural gas production relative to consumer demand. The June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts record natural gas in storage of nearly 4.1 trillion cubic feet by the end of October 2020.

    Low feedgas volumes delivered to LNG export terminals in recent weeks have also put downward pressure on natural gas prices. Natural gas deliveries to LNG terminals have averaged 4.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) so far in June, which is 1.4 Bcf/d lower than feedgas volumes last year and more than 5.0 Bcf/d lower than the record-high feedgas volumes estimated in late March.

    In addition, less business and manufacturing activity stemming from the policies put in place to mitigate the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have also led to weaker natural gas demand from industrial consumers.

    Estimates from S&P Global Platts suggest that average industrial natural gas consumption in June 2020 has declined about 2.1 Bcf/d, or 9.6 per cent, compared to June 2019.

    Low natural gas prices so far this summer have resulted in increased natural gas consumption by electric power plants (power burn) because natural gas has become more competitive for electricity generation compared to competing fuel sources, such as coal. The average daily power burn is up about 6 per cent in June compared to last year. This increase occurred despite essentially flat demand growth for electricity so far this June.

    Another effect of historically low natural gas prices is declining natural gas production. According to data from IHS Markit, dry production totaled about 90 Bcf/d in June, down nearly 3.7 Bcf/d from March 2020, EIA notes.

    The recent declines in demand have outpaced the declines in production, putting downward pressure on Henry Hub prices. However, further declines in natural gas production are expected as a result of lags between natural gas price changes and adjustments to production levels.

    The June STEO forecasts dry production to continue declining steadily, reaching a low of 84.2 Bcf/d in May 2021. Declines in natural gas production will put upward pressure on the Henry Hub price in the coming months. The June STEO expects higher natural gas prices by the end of 2020, forecasting Henry Hub to average $2.95/MMBtu in December.

EIA:Henry Hub期货代价跌至历史低点

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